And I really, really, really think that there are only four people who have a shot. I’m hoping to expand this post later, but I thought I’d post the names now as a teaser, and see what reaction I might get. The two of the six whom I really don’t believe have a shot, but I’m going to put them down here anyway, are Mitt Romney and Michael Bloomberg. Mitt’s only chance is to regain the momentum he’s bleeding profusely, and claim the spot as the “conservative alternative” to Rudy Giuliani. I don’t believe he can; I believe he’s peaked, that people have seen what they need to of Mitt and have made up their minds not to support him. I list Michael Bloomberg for one reason only (actually, it’s a compound reason): the electorate generally isn’t jumping up and down about any of these choices, and with his money (which I made clear in my last post is a negligible factor), he might be able to get enough air time to persuade people that he’s a legitimate candidate. I’d give him no more than a 1% chance, same as Mitt.

That leaves four people who could be president; nobody else has a chance. Those four people are Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama. Fred Thompson has no chance whatsoever of being our next president. Ditto John McCain. John Edwards? A pretty boy, but a pipe dream. Folks, it’s going to be one of these four people, and if you’re backing anybody else, you’re spinning your wheels and wasting your time (that is if you want to support the winning candidate). I’ll explain why later…

6 responses »

  1. Ralph O'Brien says:

    I am a conservative and last person would ever vote for is Mike Huckabee. His past record is atrocious and do not need CFR Preacherman that either lies or does not answer questions. May be first time in my lengthy life that I will not vote.

  2. josh says:

    ralph sounds like a good guy…i’ll be waiting to hear your argument as to why i should vote for someone whom i dont believe should hold the position….

  3. Byron says:

    Not all at once, but over the course of a few months, I think I’ve tried to answer those questions. There was a piece I posted on Huck’s fiscal conservatism (Dick Morris); to that, I’d add that he’s taken a “no new taxes” pledge (which calms me down on that one, to me the biggest concern I had about him). His immigration position is now strong enough that he’s won the support of the leader of the Minutemen. He’s got the brains to bring somebody along with him to shore up his lack of foreign policy experience. We don’t even need to discuss his social conservatism, nor the fact that he’ll appoint constructionists to the courts, which remains one of the top three issues (granted, most of the other Republicans would as well, including, if his word is worth anything, Rudy).

  4. Byron says:

    Oh, and I’d encourage Ralph that voting is a privilege men have fought and died for. Vote, even if you have to write in your own name. Seriously.

  5. josh says:

    you have made your case for huckabee over and over, forgive me if im not won over by this “no new taxes” pledge… i was refering more to your general comment that one would be “wasting his time” by voting on conviction, even when your guy doesnt have a chance of winning…

  6. Byron says:

    Well, I think that the best way to choose a candidate is a two-step process:

    1. Identify all acceptable candidates, and
    2. Support the most electable one.

    Huck may not be all you’d like him to be, but I’d think he’d be acceptable, particularly with some of his clarified positions, and a darn sight better than any Dem. I consider him more electable than any conservative. Ergo, he’s the man.

    Of course, for me, he’s my first choice anyway.

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