Could Huckabee Actually Win Iowa?

Two things: one, look at some of the numbers behind the numbers. Six points down with two months to go, but with those kind of secondary numbers (made-up minds, “second-choice”, etc.), and Huckabee could not only win, but win handsomely.

Two, I disagree with the guy’s take on Huckabee’s chances of winning past Iowa. What he doesn’t seem to take into account is the bounce that an impossible-as-recently-as-three-months-ago Huckabee victory would give him. You’ve got to figure Iowa is the end for either Thompson or McCain, because one of them will finish fifth. My guess is Half-Dead Fred, but I could be wrong, of course (news flash!). An Iowan win, against the odds this campaign faced, will signal to conservatives that this man, with the best conservative credentials among the Republican first-tier guys (nice to use that term), can accomplish a lot with a little, and the money and momentum will really start to flow. The crucial thing will be a respectable showing in New Hampshire. While I don’t want to underestimate the Little Candidate that Could, winning New Hampshire, while it would make him the front-runner and eliminate Flip Flopney from the field, is highly unlikely. A respectable second or third, though, coming from as far back as he is now, on top of an Iowa win, would give him a decent shot at South Carolina, particularly if the field is winnowed by then. He wins South Carolina, and it’s a two-man race, with all the MO on his side, and conservatives convinced that they have a viable candidate who is a real conservative, unlike Rudy. It’s a two-man race; some of the people who’ve endorsed Flopney (Bob Jones III—unbelievable) and Half-Dead Fred (NRLC) come home to the only real conservative left in the field, and suddenly we don’t have to worry about choosing between Rudy and Mrs. Bill for president; instead, we have a Reagan conservative who would look so good next to Mrs. Bill that we inaugurate Mike Huckabee as president in January 2009.

I’m just sayin’…

5 responses »

  1. josh says:

    it’s that kind of logic that keeps me believing that the Pirates can win their division each year…whatever keeps you going man

  2. Byron says:

    From zero percent to solid second in a matter of months. Naysayers win nothing; why not give him a shot (his credentials beat everybody’s).

  3. Deering says:

    Might I remind everyone that Bill Clinton was virtually unknown at this time for the 1992 Presidential race. There is lots of time and I will submit to you that neither party’s current front runners will win the nomination.

    As for Huckabee…he’s my first choice. I hated to see the NRTL give their endorsement so early. To Thompson. But maybe that will work in Mike’s favor.

    I know a lot of your readers will think I’m crazy, but I don’t think Huckabee vs. Edwards is too far out of the realms of possibility for their respective party nominations.

  4. Byron says:

    You might be right, but I don’t think so on Edwards. The concern Dems have long had with Mrs. Bill is that she would be unelectable in a general election. That may well be true, but the polls right now say otherwise. With that concern off their minds, I think they’ll be less worried about nominating her. Actually, Edwards is scarier than Mrs. Bill in most respects, IMHO—and that’s saying a lot.

  5. Deering says:

    I agree that Edwards can be scarier than Clinton. There’s something unsettling about a person that made his millions by taking advantage of poor people and buisnesses.

    And you are probably right. I’m just saying that we are November 2008 is a political eternity away and I think that Edwards has placed himself in a good position to take advantage of further gaffs by the Clinton campaign.

    There is an aspect of polling data that we never really read about in the papers that further causes me to question if Hillary can pull off a general election win, and that is her “unfavorable” numbers. They are horrible. No one has higher unfavs than her at this time (upwards around 40% -give or take) and I don’t think any candidate has won the White House with such numbers (I’ll have to research). Surely the Dem bosses are watching this stat. But time will tell. 🙂

    Your pal, Trenton and I came up w/ a good slogan for Edwards…
    “Roosevelt promised a chicken in every pot…I promise a $400 hairdo on every top!” What do ya think?

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