Could Huckabee Actually Win Iowa?
Two things: one, look at some of the numbers behind the numbers. Six points down with two months to go, but with those kind of secondary numbers (made-up minds, “second-choice”, etc.), and Huckabee could not only win, but win handsomely.
Two, I disagree with the guy’s take on Huckabee’s chances of winning past Iowa. What he doesn’t seem to take into account is the bounce that an impossible-as-recently-as-three-months-ago Huckabee victory would give him. You’ve got to figure Iowa is the end for either Thompson or McCain, because one of them will finish fifth. My guess is Half-Dead Fred, but I could be wrong, of course (news flash!). An Iowan win, against the odds this campaign faced, will signal to conservatives that this man, with the best conservative credentials among the Republican first-tier guys (nice to use that term), can accomplish a lot with a little, and the money and momentum will really start to flow. The crucial thing will be a respectable showing in New Hampshire. While I don’t want to underestimate the Little Candidate that Could, winning New Hampshire, while it would make him the front-runner and eliminate Flip Flopney from the field, is highly unlikely. A respectable second or third, though, coming from as far back as he is now, on top of an Iowa win, would give him a decent shot at South Carolina, particularly if the field is winnowed by then. He wins South Carolina, and it’s a two-man race, with all the MO on his side, and conservatives convinced that they have a viable candidate who is a real conservative, unlike Rudy. It’s a two-man race; some of the people who’ve endorsed Flopney (Bob Jones III—unbelievable) and Half-Dead Fred (NRLC) come home to the only real conservative left in the field, and suddenly we don’t have to worry about choosing between Rudy and Mrs. Bill for president; instead, we have a Reagan conservative who would look so good next to Mrs. Bill that we inaugurate Mike Huckabee as president in January 2009.
I’m just sayin’…