Mike Huckabee could win the Iowa caucuses. Not “run a strong third”, but actually, honestly win the thing. Outright. Beat ’em all. Here’s what the latest Rasmussen poll shows:

Republican Iowa Caucus

And here are articles by

David Brooks

and

Dick Morris

published within the past 48 hours. Folks, the longshot candidacy of Mike Huckabee continues to shed the “longshot” label, and I’m telling you, this man actually now has a chance—yes, yes, I’ll still call it a relatively slim one, but a chance—to be our next president. I understand that nationally, the Rasmussen poll has him at 7%; I understand that he has much less money than do most of the other Republican candidates (though money is a very overrated commodity in political campaigns. You heard me.). But here’s how the scenario plays out: Huckabee, who is in a virtual second-place dead heat now with the much-ballyhooed Fred Thompson, is gaining fast on the now-sinking-a-bit Mitt Romney, and there are 2 1/2 months to go before the Iowa caucuses. This man has time to close the gap and win the thing; he’s within shouting distance of the lead, now (Rasmussen is the most recent poll). He’s getting press coverage and airplay and the more people see and hear Mike, the more they like him. Sam Brownback has pulled out, and Mike stands to benefit from Brownback supporters, given their ideological proximity.

OK, so he wins Iowa. This gives him a “bounce” of historic proportions, given how much ground he had to make up to do it. Evangelicals finally begin to believe that he can win, and their support shifts to him; they begin to get energized. He probably doesn’t win New Hampshire, but a strong showing there propels him to a win in South Carolina, and two wins in three primaries brings him to the top of the class. Conservatives nationwide begin to realize that they don’t have to settle for Rudy Giuliani, pseudo-conservative that he is, or Fred Thompson, nice but boring guy that he is, or Mitt Romney flip-flopping his way across America (notice, I don’t even mention the irrelevant guy from, where, Arizona?). The conservative bandwagon gets behind Mike Huckabee, whom conservatives realize would kick Mrs. Bill’s butt in every debate, and thus be electable, and before you know it, we’re saying “Mr. President” to Mike Huckabee.

OK, it might not happen that way, but honestly, honestly, how many of us three months ago (myself included) would have given Mike Huckabee any chance to win Iowa? Now, he’s right there in the thick of things.

This, folks, is starting to get fun!

UPDATE: Here’s Tucker Carlson interviewing Mike after the Rasmussen poll came out:

Huckabee keeps on rising
Huckabee keeps on rising

5 responses »

  1. Larry Perrault says:

    Remember that a recent in-depth poll showed Huckabee leading in Iowa among voters who had definitely made up their mind about who they would support. I think Thompson’s out. I think the true remaining 3 in the race are Romney, Giuliani, and Huckabee. And Giuliani will finish well-behind in Iowa. In fact, it makes sense to me that Giuliani will choose a time to start discounting the importance of Iowa, with the hope f holding media gas through the early primaries, to fair well-enough in New Hampshire, Florida, and Michigan to get to February 5th.

    As far as Iowa is concerned, I would predict a tight finish between Romney and Huckabee and a possible Huckabee win. I’ve been watching the progress on the ground, all year. And though Romney outspent him over 20 to 1, Huckabee got over half of Romney’s vote at the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa, and I called Romney and Huckabee’s finish almost on the money.

    I’ve been doing the same, tweaking my predictions as the campaign unfolds. Give Huckabee over 2 of Brownback’s 3 points in the Rasmussen poll, and consider the resolve of the Huckabee voters, the relatively soft support of Romney, except for what he has outright bought (Romney’s already spent 40-some million dollars!), and the cold Iowa January. It’s competitive RIGHT NOW! And there’s 21/2 months to go with Huckabee rising and Romney fading.

    Here’s what we have to consider: When a poll is published showing Huckabee with over 20%, especially having already invested so much of EVEN HIS OWN MONEY, Romney will wage a fierce attack on Huckabee. That’s the big hurdle. All of us need to contact every one of our personal friends and acquaintances, and ask them to give at least $10, if not 20,50,100 or more at the Huckabee web site, and ask them to make the same appeal to their friends, so Huckabee will have the money to defend himself from the attacks. And as a second wave we need to drop a similar appeal all over the Internet. We need a million donations of $10 or more. It’s simple: If we get it, he wins the nomination.

    People need to decide if they will pay ten bucks or more (we can ask at least that much of anyone) to make a principled conservative man who defines himself by the calling of Christ, our nominee to face Hillary. Mike’s done everythng almost perfectly. The victory is up to the people.

  2. Robert says:

    I agree with the above view of the race. Huckabee will finished 1st or 2nd in Iowa with 2st being a very real possibility if the conservative base comes out and supports him.

  3. Bob says:

    Zogby International released the results of an online survey today that show half of likely voters nationwide said they would never vote for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton for president.

    At the other end of the scale, only one candidate — Democrat Bill Richardson — faired better than Republican Mike Huckabee.

    Click here to see the complete survey results or visit Bob McCarty Writes™.

  4. chukmaty says:

    I have been impressed by Huckabee’s recent showings… I think he has got a shot… I am praying for him.

  5. Bryan says:

    If Huckabee takes Iowa it will propel him to the nomination. Pat Robertson can go sell insurance!

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